教你操盘(四)Teach you stocks(4)

默认分类   2009-09-12 05:33   阅读1961   评论17  
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教你操盘(四) - 无名狼人 - 在股市战斗一生

 

每个成功者都会拥有自己独特的人格魅力和自己的处事原则,正因为这些原则,注定了最后的成功!炒股也是这样!俗话说; “没有规矩,不成方圆”,这句简单的话语却告诉了市场参与者建立自己投资原则、章法、交易纪律保证长期稳定获利的重要性!而大部分市场参与者的行为举止乱无章法,不照一定的规则或既定的计划去做,也不肯下工夫研究股市和它的走势,所以投资股市稳赔不赚。

投资原则、章法、交易纪律构成一套完整的市场交易获利体系,任何一笔买卖都必须在既定的获利交易体系规则以内进行,这套体系说复杂也复杂,说简单也简单,关键看大家有没有下功夫!要想将交易融入交易系统,在市场里首先应杜绝所有喜好,事实证明,市场上99%的失败者最终都是失败在自己的喜好上,可见按照喜好进行买卖交易最终会一败涂地。

股票没有好坏之分,能赚钱的就是好票!车站上车,买点交易是系统交易规则之一,是学好操盘的第一步。其也会出现与人性对立面,即:正规车站捡票上车后,始发时速度慢;在出城之前,由于道路缘故,速度不会太快,更不会像那些已经驶入高速公路的汽车那样高速飞驰。或者有可能出现:由于旅客没有上齐,延迟始发时间的现象。但是却具备了安全、容易辨别方向等优点!例如:3月10日至3月16日的600320(振华重工),6月30日至7月3日的600725(云维股份),5月25日至6月4日的000423(东阿阿胶),这些区间都是正规车站上车点,而600725的买点区间,大盘大涨了3个交易日,但该股横盘滞涨,走势与大盘背离,这就与人性产生背离!人性的弱点很容易使其做出错误的举措!而事实上,汽车还没有出城,在没有出城之前,汽车跑慢一点,非常正常,直到出城之后,才会驶入高速公路,道路才会畅通无阻,才会加快速度前往目的地。买点上车,出城之后,即使出现意外情况,因方向发生改变而被迫下车,但至少离目的地更近了一步!同样的情况也出现在东阿阿胶(000423)上,5月25日至6月4日,大盘涨了近10%,该股也同样滞涨,看看7月3日至7月6日该股在小站停车的几天,大盘却大涨了几天,而7月7日大盘开始回调,该股刚好才走出小镇,加速前行!因此,一旦大盘与所持有的品种出现了背离,就会与人性产生对立,而这种对立必须用规则和纪律加以战胜,否则,在还没有出城之前,市场大多数参与者就会由于对该客车产生抱怨情绪而下车,如果遇上急性子,往往一时冲动就直接到高速公路中途拦车,因为这是他们的喜好,可喜好往往会把这些人害死!真正理性的做法是:继续返回,等待下一班次上车!

事事无绝对!特别是资本市场,不可预料的事情随时都有可能发生,即使是在买点捡票上车,也有坐错方向的时候!可是,在市场里,每个投资者都会为自己持有的品种寻找上涨的理由,即使已经掉入主力设下的陷阱,这些交易者还在大肆宣扬: “我的股票一定会涨” “我不会看错”……等等一厢情愿的豪言壮语,在告诉别人的同时也顺便安慰自己!事实上,没有人能够100%准确的去预测市场,否则就成仙了。完美的交易系统必须建立在市场是无法预测的基础之上,即使判断正确,也仅仅只是概率的上的增加,即使可以达到7成以上把握,同样也曾在淘汰出局风险,因为交易10次,会有3次失败,表面上看,成功率比较高,但实际上,往往3次的失败,会损失过半!除非在70%的成功率基础上达到95%以上的保证获利率,才能称之为完美的交易系统。

如何达到这样的保证获利率?答案只有一种:资金管理;通过合理的资金管理并叠加买点交易的结合完全可以达到,假设系统资金管理分为3个组合,则保证获利率为:

1-0.3*0.3*0.3=1-0.027=97.3%

达到97%的保证获利率,基本上解决了长期稳定获利的问题,当然,3组合资金管理属于稳健型,这只是交易系统中一个环节中的一个步骤而已,在交易系统中,资金管理既要包括稳健同时也要包括激进型,即多组合和零组合结合,这是根据实际收益反复变换的过程,通过不断的反复变换达到即无风险又增加丰厚获利的机会。从长期看,只要严格按照交易系统规则交易,成功是必然!

假设投资者分别在买点买入3只个股;这样的买入也许是分时间段买入,也许是同时买入,但前提必须是买点买入,我们按照最坏打算,即:仅有一支按照预期发展,将其持有不动保证利益最大化,其它两支向相反的方向发展,将其止损出局亏损最小化!由于都是在买点进行介入,即:上涨个股最终利润会大于另两只走坏个股止损出局的亏损,这个回合是获利的!当然,这是以比较坏的预期进行计算而已,如果是三支都上涨呢?或者是两支上涨仅一支下跌呢?则这个回合就会赚的更多!

以上是稳健型资金管理,交易系统是稳健资金管理和激进资金管理不断变换进行的过程,当其通过稳健型资金管理,整个资金增值达到一定幅度,请注意:第一个回合也许会跑输大势,也许会跑赢大势,由于系统是建立在市场无法预测的基础上,这仅仅只是为第二步激进资金管理的变换过程打下安全基础,因此,这个阶段是否跑赢大势?其实并不重要。

假设1000万资金在交易过程中通过稳健型资金管理达到1200万,就有了激进型资金管理交易的安全基础,在有7成把握的前提下,在买点区间满仓介入一支目标股,由于买点进行介入的交易特点,因此即使是遇到最坏的结果,也不会使投资者损失超过20%,保证了本金的安全!但如果做对了,资金会迈向一个新的台阶,当其资金到达新的台阶后,即视为一个新的起点,重新开始稳健资金管理向激进资金型管理的转化,以此循环!大家可能会有疑问,为什么之后就不能一直采取激进型资金管理呢?这里面包括很多哲学问题,要知道,激进型资金管理交易的保证获利率只有7成,交易要踏准节奏,资金管理类型的变换同样也要掌握好节奏,否则,如果是长期交易,最终总有一次会大败!

谈到这里,大家对狼人交易系统应该有一个大的框架认识,既:买点交易与资金管理的集合、买点的种类、资金管理的变换等……,合理的运用,才是长期战胜市场之道;股市才会真正成为各位朋友的提款机!

 市场最终没有专家,只有输家和赢家。当大家对其交易系统有了大体认识之后,日后我们再慢慢细分,慢慢消化!

       请勿转载,谢谢合作!

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         Each winner will have its own unique charm and personality of the principles of their own way of doing things, precisely because of these principles is doomed to the final success! Stocks is also true! As the saying goes; "No rules, not a radius," and this simple word tells the market participants to establish their own investment principles, the rules, trading discipline, the importance of ensuring the long-term stability and profitability! Most market participants chaos as the behavior, not according to certain rules or established plans to do, but also refused to make a greater effort the stock market and its movements, so invest in the stock market sure money-loser. 

        Investment principles, the rules, trading discipline and constitute a complete set of market transactions, profit system, any amount of the sale must be established to conduct profitable trading system within the rules, this system, that complex and complicated, that the simplest and simple, the key to see Are there any efforts! To the transaction into the trading system, in the market should first eliminate all preferences, the facts prove that 99% of the losers on the market are ultimately fail in their own preferences, the preferences can be seen in dealings and transactions in accordance with the final doomed to failure.

       Stock is not good or bad, can make money is a good vote! Car Zhanshang Ju, selling points, trading is trading rules of the system is one of the master manipulator of the first step. Also occur with the opposites of their human nature, namely: the regular ticket on the bus station, picking up after the departure time is slow; in out of the city before, due to reasons of road, speed is not too fast, but not as those who have entered the highway vehicle as high-speed Flying Spur. Or is likely to occur: Since there is no passenger on the Qi, delayed departure time phenomenon. But have a safe, easy to identify the direction of the advantages! For example: March 10 to March 16 of 600320 (Zhenhua Heavy Industries), June 30-July 3 in 600,725 (cloud-dimensional shares), May 25 to June 4 in 000423 (East A donkey-hide gelatin), which are regular car Zhanshang Ju-point range, while the range of 600,725 of the selling points the broader market rose in three trading days, but the unit sideways stagflation, departure from the trend with the broader market, which produces and humanity departure! human weakness is easy to make the wrong move! In fact, cars have not yet out of the city, in the absence of out of the city before the car ran a bit slower, very normal, until out of the city only after entering the highway, the road would be conducted smoothly, will speed up to their destinations. Something for the car, out of the city after, even if unforeseen circumstances, because the direction of change was forced off, but at least one step closer away from the destination! The same situation also appears in the Dong-E E-Jiao (000423), on May 25 to June 4, broader market rose nearly 10%, the unit also stagflation, take a look at July 3 to July 6 at the small station parking unit a few days, but broader market rose for a few days, while the July 7 tape start to correct, the unit was out of town just to speed up ahead! Therefore, when the broader market and held by the emergence of varieties of departure, it will create antagonism and humanity, and this antagonism must be rules and discipline to be overcome, otherwise, it is not out of the city prior to the market the majority of participants will be generated due to passenger complaints in the mood to get off if there are impatient, often on impulse directly to the highway hailed the middle, because it is their preferences, preferences often will these people be killed! truly rational approach is to: continue to return, waiting for the next frequency on the bus!

       Everything is absolutely free! Especially the capital market, unpredictable things can happen at any time, even in something for picking up tickets on the train, but also a time when sitting the wrong direction! However, in the market, each investor will be looking for their own varieties hold up reasons, even though they have fallen into the trap set by the main, these transactions are also a big fanfare: "I am the stock will go up" "I'm not mistaken," ... ... and so wishful rhetoric, but also to tell others By the way console myself! In fact, no one can 100% accurate to predict the market, otherwise the immortality. The perfect trading system must be established in the market can not be predicted on the basis, even judicious, it merely increases the probability that, even more than can be achieved into the 7 to grasp, also have eliminated the risk because the transaction 10 times, there will be three times failed, on the surface, the success rate is relatively high, but in fact, often three times failed, would lose more than half! Unless the success rate of 70% based on 95% or more of the assurance that the interest rate in order to call it a perfect trading system.

       How to achieve such a guarantee the rate of return? The answer is only one: financial management; through sound financial management and a combination of superimposed buy some transactions can be achieved, assuming that the system is divided into three fund management, portfolio, then the interest rate is guaranteed as follows:

                                       1-0.3 * 0.3 * 0.3 = 1-0.027 = 97.3% 

        Up to 97% of the assurance that the interest rate, basically solved the long-term stability and profitability, of course, three fund management portfolio are strong type, this is only a part of the trading system in one step only, in the trading system, financial management not only stability must also be included, including the radical type, that is combined with multiple combinations and zero, which is based on the actual return repeated the process of transformation through continuous change to achieve that is repeated adds substantial risk-free profit opportunities. In the long term, as long as strict accordance with the rules of trading system trading, success is inevitable!

        Suppose investors have bought three stocks in the selling points; such a bid may be sub-period of time to buy, probably at the same time to buy, but the premise must be something for buying, we follow the worst case, namely: only one in accordance with anticipated development will not move its holdings to ensure maximum benefits, the other two in the opposite direction, out of its stop-loss and minimum losses! Because they are all in the selling points for intervention, namely: rising stocks end profits will be greater than the other two walk out the bad stocks stop loss, this round was a profit! Of course, this is a bad comparison is expected to be calculated only, if the three are all up? Or two up just a fall? Then this round will earn more!

         These are sound-based fund management, trading system is a sound financial management and aggressive fund management, constantly changing process, and when it is through sound-based fund management, the entire capital value of up to a certain extent, please note: the first round may be lost to run trend may be faster than the general trend, because the system is based on the market can not be predicted on the basis that this is just the second step of the process of radical transformation of financial management to lay the foundations of security, therefore, at this stage is faster than the general trend? In fact is not important.

          Suppose 10 million funds in the transaction process through sound-based fund management reached 12 million, there is a radical-based fund management transactions, security infrastructure, in a 7 into the grasp of the context, the involvement of a warehouse full of something for a range of target shares, since selling points to intervene in the transaction features, so even the worst result encountered, nor will investors lost more than 20% to ensure the safety of principal! But if done right, and capital will move towards a new stage, when its capital reaches a new level later, as a new starting point to re-start sound financial management of funds based management to the radical transformation of this cycle! You may be in doubt, why not after the money has been taking Aggressive management? This includes a lot of philosophical questions, you know, radical-based fund management transactions to ensure the rate of only 7 into a transaction to Tazhun rhythm, fund management, the same type of transformation have good rhythm, otherwise, if it is a long-term transactions, the final total one will be defeated!

          At this point, everyone Werewolf trading system should have a broad framework for understanding both: something for trading and fund management, collection, buy some type of fund management, transformation and so on ... ... and reasonable use is a long time to overcome market Road; the stock market will really become our friends ATMs!

        The market is not the ultimate expert, only losers and winners. When we have a general understanding of its trading system, the future, we are slowly broken down slowly digested!

        Please do not reprint, thank cooperation!

   

狼人谈操盘硬件重要性

狼人操盘思路基础

狼人操盘技术基础

正确操作理念才等于笑到最后

末技术理念奉献 

工作不是写博,而是实战操盘

教你操盘  

狼人奉劝各位股友

勇敢、孤独、残酷... ...

胜败在人,操作在心

狼人“追击涨停”心得 

狼人操盘理念

熊市中涨停股数据分析 

随便写写

你为何总是失败    

熊市追击涨停必胜法则

市场是欺骗与谎言的场所 

服输是一种“大智慧”

相信自己、才能战无不胜

狼人随笔      

 

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